On January 15, 2024, in Des Moines, Iowa, at his caucus night rally at the Iowa Events Center, former President Donald Trump delivers a speech. Voting for the first round of the 2024 Republican presidential nominating race took place today in Iowa’s caucuses. It has been predicted that Trump will win the Iowa caucus.
Since he declared 14 months ago that he would run for president again, Donald Trump has had an iron grip on the Republican Party. It is seen in the party’s continued ideological retreat to the right on matters of culture and, most notably, immigration law.
That was amply demonstrated on Monday night by Iowa Republicans, who handily defeated the former president. They served as a vent for his rage and his belief that President Biden had done a “disaster” with everything. According to AP VoteCast, a survey of over 1,500 people who said they expected to participate in the caucuses, over nine out of ten respondents stated they desire disruption or significant change in the way the government functions.
Despite how obvious his victory was, Iowa has never been the kingmaker when it comes to Republican nominations. Voters in New Hampshire do not follow Iowa’s example.
A Retiring Campaign.
Due to Trump’s virtual run as an incumbent, this was the least exciting Iowa caucus in the previous 20 years. By making repeated false assertions, he has persuaded a number of Republicans that he did not actually lose the 2020 election to Joe Biden. He has also dominated the contest in a manner typical of an incumbent.
He made few trips to the state and only organized a few rallies. He disapproved of candidate forums. Rather than campaign in Iowa, he opted to appear in court as a defendant in his cases in both New York and Washington.
It is obvious that the former president, who continues to be the party’s overwhelming favorite, wants to get to the general election as soon as possible.
Bends and Turns Forward.
Especially in New Hampshire, where the primary is held in eight days, the word “inevitable” might have significant risks.
New Hampshire is renowned for producing upsets in both houses. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, joked that New Hampshire “corrects” Iowa. Sen. John McCain’s victory in New Hampshire in 2000 hurt George W. Bush. In 1984, when Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado pulled an upset victory in the Democratic contest, so did former Vice President Walter Mondale.
Perhaps their best chance to stop Trump’s ascent is in New Hampshire, where the electorate is more educated and moderate. After that there will be a political hiatus until the next big contested race in South Carolina on February 24, where Haley is looking for a victory there or at the very least a solid showing.
However, a lot can occur in that time. On February 8, the U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in a case that questions whether Trump is covered by a constitutional provision that prohibits people who have “engaged in insurrection” from holding public office. The question of whether presidential immunity shields Trump from prosecution if he attempts to reverse his 2020 election defeat may also be considered by the top court.
On March 5, often known as Super Tuesday, when 14 states cast their votes for the presidential nominee, the criminal trial in that case is set to begin. There is no denying Trump’s support among Republicans, but the journey ahead may be difficult and drawn out.
It wasn’t taxes, employment, or business restrictions that were on Iowans’ minds.
According to VoteCast, almost 40% of caucus attendees cited immigration as their main concern, while only 1/3 cited the economy. Abortion, energy, and foreign policy were ranked significantly lower among the other issues.
In fact, over two thirds of caucus attendees reported that they felt either stable or better about their financial situation. However, the electorate still desires significant changes—3 out of 10 want a complete overhaul of the federal government’s operations, while another 6 out of 10 want meaningful adjustments. Regarding the criminal allegations brought against Trump, six out of ten caucus attendees lack faith in the American legal system.
All of it paints a picture of a segment of the American public willing to question fundamental democratic institutions.
DeSantis’s Poor Return on Capital.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis entered the 2024 Republican presidential run with over $100 million in cash and a strong win in his reelection, positioning himself as the successor to a MAGA political brand that a weaker Trump could no longer successfully carry.
Soon, reality set in.
Tens of millions of dollars and eight months later, DeSantis doesn’t seem to be much of a danger to the outgoing president.
Instead, after spending over $55 million on pro-DeSantis advertisements, the governor of Florida and Haley were in a close contest for second place.
Unfavorable reports regarding extravagant expenditures, such as DeSantis’ penchant for operating private jets, have plagued him.
According to a common misconception, politicians withdraw from political contests not because they lose but rather because they run out of money.
The Difference in Education.
According to VoteCast, over half of Haley’s votes and around half of DeSantis’ have at least a college degree. However, just roughly 2 out of every 10 Trumps did.
Among white voters, education has been a significant point of contention in the Trump administration. Iowa supports the polling that has shown that the GOP is being split along the lines of education during the primary.
That suggests that, should he be the nominee in November, Trump might have a vulnerability. Compared to 2016, a higher percentage of voters has a bachelor’s degree, and this percentage continues to increase as bachelor’s degrees gain popularity.
Trump’s weakness was also evident in the suburbs, which have the highest educational attainment. Just roughly 4 out of 10 caucus attendees backed him. The suburbs played a crucial role in Biden defeating Trump in 2020.
Ramaswamy Strung Himself to Death.
Vivek Ramaswamy’s eccentric run for the presidency has come across as a millennial distillation of Trump’s MAGA movement. It is abrasive, frequently irritating, and extremely online.
Ramaswamy enjoyed mocking his competitors, rapped along to Eminem songs, and frequently tried to outsmart Trump with his remarks. Early in the campaign, the affluent 38-year-old entrepreneur attracted a lot of attention thanks to that performative element.
Nevertheless, it also proven to be tiresome, as evidenced by the fact that, in a debate, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie referred to Trump as the “most obnoxious blowhard in America.”
On Iowa Caucus night, conspiracy-loving biotech magnate Vivek Ramaswamy withdraws from the 2024 presidential contest and prepares to support Trump.
Following the results of the Iowa caucuses, Ramaswamy lagged behind not just Trump but also Haley and DeSantis. It was hard for him to go past ten.
The conspiracy-loving biotech mogul, whose flamboyant debate performances during the 2024 GOP presidential primary left a lasting impact, announced his withdrawal from the contest late on Monday night, according to his team.
The action was taken when preliminary results from the Iowa caucuses showed that Ramaswamy did not register in the double digits. The 38-year-old Ramaswamy promised to cause a major upset.
Donald Trump outperforms even his 2016 performance in the Iowa Caucuses.
Donald Trump, the former president, won a majority of the vote in Iowa, around half. In Iowa, Ramaswamy informed reporters that he intended to support Trump.
Opinion: Iowa, Trump, and the Future of America: Republicans Need to Reject the Outgoing President
The crowd for the Republican debate between Haley and DeSantis is dwarfed by the Trump town hall.
Before the Iowa caucuses, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis square off in the last Republican debate.
